Wanna know the party that’ll be winning in the May local elections?
It’ll be the Liberal Democrats.
Well, it will be if the can cleverly re-position themselves in time, and there’s no national scandal like the world realising that the Liberal Democrat leader is actually ‘The Master‘ from Doctor Who. (He is, just compare and contrast, darling, compare and contrast!)
So, once Article 50 is triggered, UKIP will not really have a function on the political stage any more. A bit like the Labour party.
UKIP started sliding into oblivion when Sir Nigel Farage left for real. It has lost its function, served its purpose, is an ex-party. Only the die-hards will hang on, yet it’ll slip away for the majority of the voting public.
Mrs May‘s Conservative Party is doing so amazingly well. It’s inclusive nature means that with UKIP slowly bowing out, come the May local elections, the Kippers will need somewhere new to go. The obvious home is the new centrist cuddly Tories. There are some Kippers who hate the Tories, and they’ll go to the LibDems.
Only mental Millennials or those who are sincerely stupid (like the population of Liverpool) will bother voting Labour ever again. Yes, there will be pockets of Labour, but generally its vote is haemorrhaging as fast as UKIP‘s. Labour‘s floating voters won’t go to the Tories, yes a few might, but they’ll make that journey to the Liberal Democrats.
The LibDems are on that journey back out of oblivion and, given time, destined to replace the Labour Party as the Official Opposition in 2020. Cleverly, they’ve re-positioned themselves as the home of Remoaners and the less vocal Remainers who have mental difficulties accepting the UK leaving the European Union. They are actually providing an apparently credible opposition to the Government, which itself, obviously, has been forced to take a very pro-Brexit position.
In many ways the Liberal Democrats are a more natural home to the members of the party-within-a-party Momentum, than the Labour party. Again there will be clingons obsessed with Corbyn, but those who kinda came from nowhere to be a part of the Labour movement that never was, will float away to the LibDems.
So, the trend in May’s local elections will be towards massive swings, even gains, for the Liberal Democrats. I suspect the Tories will just about hold steady, down a bit as is usually the case mid-term for the Government of the day, UKIP will all but disappear, and Labour will be in terminal crisis.
So, no need to sit up with Dimbledore on Election night now, ‘cos I’ve spoilt it for you.