Something bizarre just happened.
Something happened that we don’t normally see.
For the first time in, well, forever, the Meteorological Office correctly predicted the weather, or more specifically, a major weather event.
The timing was a bit out and had to be adjusted as we got closer, but more or less everything about ‘the storm’ was correct.
The storm, which media are desperate to call the ‘St Jude’s Storm‘, and its ferocity was alluded to a day or so before the storm itself actually formed. Now that is good modelling. My hat’s off to that.
Normally the Met Office (and therefore the BBC’s) forward modelling is so useless that it invariably is just wrong. Not this time though.
How did they manage it?
I know we recently paid £Billions for ‘new computers’ but I didn’t think they were on-line yet.
I have written before about their weather predictions, even doing a science experiment where I picked a day and time and watched the predictions swap and change as we got closer and closer to my target time (here).
We also know how stroppy they got when we all laughed and pointed at them when they repeatedly incorrectly made long term seasonal predictions. Their famous barbecue summers and warm winters and how we’d not being seeing rain again are all Met Office walk of shame badges they have to wear.
Their obsession with global warming advocacy rather than science, which probably comes from the mental legacy of the boss man who used to be into all that eco-warrior advocacy stuff rather than actual climate science, means that nearly everything the Met Office says is wrong because their models are designed to run hot. This could be so easily adjusted, considering there is no global warming at the moment, and there hasn’t been any for the last 17 years.
The Met Office started warning of the storm about 4 days before it arrived, which in itself was about 2 days after Jonathan Powell’s Vantage Weather started warning the storm was coming, and a whole 6 WEEKS after Piers Corbyn’s Weatheraction had warned something big and stormish was coming.
To be fair though, the Piers Corbyn prediction was initially plus or minus a few days and considered the storm to be causing more damage to the north of the UK. People will bleat about this ‘inaccuracy’, however, he was saying this six weeks ahead.
Bearing in mind that Corbyn creates long range weather forecasts by looking at the influences of the sun both directly and ‘modulated’ by the moon, whilst the Met office largely dismisses the notion that the sun drives weather (or climate – bearing in mind that climate isn’t weather and weather isn’t climate!), maybe to enhance their ‘success’ this time, the Met Office should start to take a proper look at this science.
Well, for now, well done Met Office, but, erm, any chance you could warn the UK of the terrible winter of the biggest freeze chaos in decades that we are slipping into next month?