It may happen in May

I’ve long been a fan of Piers Corbyn and his site and his longer range weather forecasts. According to him, he has an 85% accuracy rate with his forecasts or predictions.

How does he do it?  Well, he watches the sun.  He keeps his exact methodology secret, but apparently the way the sun sends various of its emissions towards the earth, with some bouncing off (or ‘modulating’ by) the moon, directly fiddles about with the jet-streams, which in turn affects weather on a regional basis.

Corbyn’s calculations are made using a standard laptop, and he has troops of followers happy to pay for his 30 day ahead and 45 day ahead forecasts.

Compare and contrast, the Meteorological Office.  They have Millions of Pounds worth of computer equipment.  Despite this investment, they are consistently unable to give long range weather forecasts with any accuracy.  We all know about the ‘barbecue summer’ and other winter disasters that led to them refusing to attempt to give any further long range forecasts, yet continuing to ensure huge bonuses were paid to those at the top.

Well, there now seems to be a major facedown between the Met Office and Weatheraction over what should be happening in May.

On 17th April, Corbyn issued the following:

“The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in Central and East parts with a record run of bitter Northerly winds. Snow at times especially on high ground in NE / East. Spring put in reverse.
*Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%”

In contrast, according to the Met Office, as of 19th April:

“UK Outlook for Friday 4 May 2012 to Friday 18 May 2012: The start of May looks likely to remain unsettled with a continuation of showers or longer spells of rain, although there should also be some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will generally be close to or slightly above the seasonal average. Conditions may turn more settled across southern England for a time, with a greater chance of some drier and sunnier weather than of late. Further north, it looks likely to stay unsettled with further rain at times, particularly across northwest England as well as northern and western parts of Scotland.”

This changed on 27th April to:

“Early May will probably see a continuation of generally unsettled and often windy weather, with showers or longer spells of rain. Southern, eastern and central parts are still likely to see some heavy showers with a risk of thunder, but these probably less widespread than recently. Overall, northern and western parts will probably fare best, with conditions here often drier and brighter, but even here there are likely to be further showers and longer spells of rain. North Sea coastal areas likely to be affected by low cloud and occasional sea fog. It should be generally warmer than of late, with a reduced chance of frost by night, though it will feel quite chilly in eastern coastal areas when conditions are dull.”

then, with this bit for the rest of the month:

“UK Outlook for Friday 11 May 2012 to Friday 25 May 2012: Changeable weather is likely to continue, although perhaps not quite to the same extent as the last week or so. Showers or longer periods of rain are likely to affect most parts of the UK, but rainfall totals will probably be close to seasonal averages. Between the rain and showers, there should also be some drier and brighter interludes, these perhaps most likely to the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be often close to the seasonal average, and feeling cool in the wind and rain, but should lift above average during any sunnier, more settled periods.”

So, there we have it.  A May of contrasts and a final showdown.

If Weatheraction have a major fail, and the Met Office are the winners, then we have to suspect the Weatheraction methodology.

However, if temperatures are the ‘coldest for 100 years’, then we know Weatheraction has won the battle of long range weather forecasting.  They do it by studying the Sun, which drives climate and weather patterns, yet is mainly ignored by the Met Office.

If the Met Office lose, they need to re-assess their methodology.  Plus, questions need to be asked about how and why they cost us so much, yet deliver so little.

I guess we re-visit this at the end of May.